FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 93%
No 93%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$322.2
Low liquidityTraders
5
Comments
1
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill there be a war between the US and China this century?
Manifold MarketsUS x China Military clash before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRules
The relationship between the US and China is strained in some fields, such as diplomacy, trade, media, and ideology.
- These and other areas can be coordinated in asymmetrical “cold war” strategies between countries.
- Yet, there still aren't records of a “hot war” - i.e. a war with active military hostilities - between the US and China.
- If by the end of 2025 either the United States or China declares a state of war against each other, or exchange armed hostilities at least once, this question will be resolved as “Yes”.
- Only kinetic military action will be considered as "armed hostility" to resolve this market.
- Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside another country's territory.