Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastInsurgencies in Iran 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
83
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 25, 26, 4:47 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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PolymarketRules
Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Minor Wars or Major Wars categories on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
- I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict.
- Unlike previous versions of this market, we are now using article titles for existing civil conflicts, and are only using country pairings for conflicts not already on the page.
- If a new conflict article or country pairing gets folded into an existing article, the question will only resolve Yes if the encompassing article is both over the threshold AND the beligerents from the country pairing fought in the current year.
- This means that changes in Wiki policy or recategorization of past articles should not count by themselves for this market.