Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
69
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 25, 4:20 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Whether the United States, Guyana, another country, or a civil war, this market resolves Yes if Venezuela is in a new entry on Wikipedia's active conflicts page in the Minor or Major Wars categories by the end of 2026.
- This does not include the existing Colombian-Venezuelan conflict entry.
- Obvious wiki vandalizm doesn't count either, and Venezuela's participation in the conflict must be actively martial to count if they are added as a new beligerent to an existing war.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Whether the United States, Guyana, another country, or a civil war, this market resolves Yes if Venezuela is in a new entry on Wikipedia's active conflicts page in the Minor or Major Wars categories by the end of 2026.