Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 95.1%
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71
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 25, 4:20 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Whether the United States, Guyana, another country, or a civil war, this market resolves Yes if Venezuela is in a new entry on Wikipedia's active conflicts page in the Minor or Major Wars categories by the end of 2026.
- This does not include the existing Colombian-Venezuelan conflict entry.
- Obvious wiki vandalizm doesn't count either, and Venezuela's participation in the conflict must be actively martial to count if they are added as a new beligerent to an existing war.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.