PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDelcy Rodríguez 92%Leader of 43 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$205.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.1% / 0.9%
Spread
800.0%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.3%
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 7:52 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Delcy Rodríguez92%
Compare venues· Delcy Rodríguez
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall90% match · verified | Medium | 94% | +2pt | $5.3 | $24.1K | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 92% | 0pt | $0 | $205.8K | 15 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
5mo
94%
2%
2%
+5 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$35.9K
24h Vol$5.3
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.