PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Delcy Rodríguez 93.1%Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$100.1
Liquidity
$219.1K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
3
7d Change
+2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 7:52 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Delcy Rodríguez 86%