Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026?
One-OffUS PoliticsLatin AmericaGeopoliticsPolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 11:33 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
PolymarketWill former Colombian president Gustavo Petro be formally charged with a criminal offense before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Gustavo Petro face a criminal trial before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Gustavo Petro, the 35th president of Colombia since 2022, is detained by U.S. authorities at any point.
- Detention includes arrest, apprehension, or custody by U.S. federal, state, or local law enforcement.
- The market resolves NO if Petro is not detained by the United States by the end of 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government statements, court records, or major news reporting from established outlets confirming detention.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria