Will Gustavo Petro be convicted of a crime before January 1, 2028?
US PoliticsOne-OffCrime & Justice1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 55.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 26, 2:07 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market goes one step further and asks whether any of the investigations or criminal proceedings involving Petro ultimately result in a criminal conviction.
- The market is not limited to allegations contained in Abelardo de la Espriella's “White Paper.” Any criminal case involving Gustavo Petro may qualify.
- Resolution criteria:
- YES: If a competent court issues a criminal conviction against Gustavo Petro before January 1, 2028.
- NO: If no criminal conviction is issued against him by that date.
- Being investigated, charged, indicted, arrested, or standing trial does not qualify.
