Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 26, 2:07 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gustavo Petro be convicted of a crime before January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
PolymarketWill former Colombian president Gustavo Petro be formally charged with a criminal offense before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Gustavo Petro face a criminal trial before January 1, 2027?
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PolymarketLindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This is the strongest and most consequential market in the series.
- It asks whether Gustavo Petro will ultimately receive a prison sentence as a result of a criminal conviction before the beginning of 2028.
- A conviction alone would not be sufficient.
- The court must actually impose a sentence that includes imprisonment.
- Resolution criteria:
- YES: If a competent court sentences Gustavo Petro to a term of imprisonment before January 1, 2028.
Open markets
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- Yes-17.0pt35%
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- 24h Vol
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- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
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- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
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- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
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- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028? resolve?
- Will Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is the strongest and most consequential market in the series.