Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElectionGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.7%
Forecasters
60
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 24, 3:21 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Lots of possible edge cases here so this is going to be a judgement call to some extent.
- But here are some examples which may clarify the intent:
- Resolves yes if:
- There is a constitutional amendment allowing Trump to have a third term as President
- Trump dissolves the office of President and functionally becomes dictator-for-life
- Someone else is elected President on a platform of "doing exactly what Trump says" and effectively becomes a figurehead for Trump.