Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin AmericaElection3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Delcy Rodríguez 86.4%Leader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$24.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 14, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
If the named outcome de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalBBC Newscountry's Ministry of Foreign Affairsthe United NationsNPRthe Associated PressReutersThe Washington Postthe Financial TimesBloomberg NewsThe Economist
- For the purposes of this Contract, "the named outcome de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, the named outcome is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of the named outcome's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.
- The Source Agency's determination of whether the named outcome de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:
- Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela
- The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:
- Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and the named outcome performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to the named outcome Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026? · Delcy Rodríguez 93%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026??
- Kalshi prices Delcy Rodríguez at 86% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? resolve?
- Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.