Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin AmericaElection5mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDelcy Rodríguez 94%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.3
Liquidity
$24.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
91.0% / 94.0%
Spread
3.3%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 26 minutes ago
May 14, 26, 9:00 PMJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Delcy Rodríguez94%
Compare venues· Delcy Rodríguez
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 94% | +2pt | $5.3 | $24.1K | 26 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket90% match · verified | Low | 92% | 0pt | $0 | $237.9K | 26 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
5mo
92%
-0.1%5%
1%
+40 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$339.1K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this Contract, "Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.
- The Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:
- Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela
- The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:
- Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Delcy Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Delcy Rodríguez Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5Jul 1010d of dataJul 26
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If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this Contract, "Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.
- The Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:
- Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela
- The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:
- Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Delcy Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Delcy Rodríguez Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela