Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffSportsChessLatin AmericaElectionMiddle East2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 8:51 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in the event that regime change occurs in Iran, credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, etc.) reports that the change was achieved primarily through a military coup—defined as the forcible seizure of power by military or paramilitary forces (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or regular military) displacing the existing clerical leadership.
- The coup must involve the military taking direct control of state institutions and governance.
- Examples of such types of coups: Brazil 1964, Chile 1973, Argentina 1976.
- This market resolves NO if regime change occurs through other means: purely popular revolution (French Revolution, USSR, Romania), civil war (must be longer than 1 year, Syria is an example), foreign military occupation (Iraq, Afghanistan), or voluntary transition of power (Brazil 1985, Chile 1990).
- American or israeli airstrikes, blockade or covert operations doesn't count as foreign military occupation.
