Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.9%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJan 26, 24, 1:40 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump assuming the presidency in 2025, will he be ousted by a military coup?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?
Manifold MarketsWill China experience a military coup before 2028?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
PolymarketRules
Some political commentators have expressed the possibility of a military coup, if Donald Trump is elected in 2024.
- Will one occur?
- The coup does not need to be successful, it just needs to have military support and be significant enough that multiple major news sources (eg.
- CNN, Fox, NYT) have reported on it and referred to it as a coup or similar.
- This market does not need Donald Trump to have been elected.
