Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 89.4%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 26, 24, 1:40 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Some political commentators have expressed the possibility of a military coup, if Donald Trump is elected in 2024.
- Will one occur?
- The coup does not need to be successful, it just needs to have military support and be significant enough that multiple major news sources (eg.
- CNN, Fox, NYT) have reported on it and referred to it as a coup or similar.
- This market does not need Donald Trump to have been elected.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029? resolve?
- Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Some political commentators have expressed the possibility of a military coup, if Donald Trump is elected in 2024.