Trump administration does another regime change after removing Venezuela's Maduro?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsLatin America2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 81.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 10:38 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if, during the remainder (after today: Jan. 5, 2026) of Trump's presidency, the US successfully pursues regime change in a foreign country.
- If there is a regime change that is widely suspected to be the US's doing, that will resolve NO unless either the US government takes credit for it or there is strong evidence that it was primarily the US's doing — think along the lines of the "clear and convincing evidence" standard in US jurisprudence.
- If there is a popular uprising in a country that leads to regime change but there is no strong evidence that this was orchestrated and directly supported by the US, that will count as NO.
- Resolution date set to Inauguration Day 2029 but will resolve as YES sooner if a qualifying regime change occurs.
