Which regimes will survive until 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastRussia / UkraineChinaLatin AmericaElection1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Russia 90.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Russia 90.6%Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 10, 24, 4:45 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Each answer resolves YES if the current ruling regime is not overthrown, dissolved, or ended (as determined by reputable news sources and Western government reports) by Jan 1, 2028.
- Some examples:
- If the current leader dies or ceases to be the leader, but the same party/group remains in power through 2028, this would resolve YES
- A military coup against any of the regimes (even if done by high ranking members of the current regime) resolves NO
- A democratic election in any regime in which the ruling party/leader wins does not resolve NO, but if an opposition party or leader wins, it would resolve NO
- If the regime loses power and then regains it, that still resolves NO
