Will Brazil revoke the new eVisa requirement for US citizens, cancel the border for USA passport holders in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsLatin America2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 86.8%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 20, 25, 8:52 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 9:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Description: This market resolves to YES if the government of Brazil officially reinstates visa-free entry for United States citizens for tourism/business purposes at any point between 1 January 2026 and December 31, 2026.
- It resolves to NO if the eVisa (or a traditional visa) remains mandatory for US citizens throughout the entirety of 2026.
- Current Status: Since April 10, 2025, US citizens require an eVisa to enter Brazil.
- Legislative Uncertainty: The Brazilian Senate has previously voted to suspend this new measure, but that requires approval from the Chamber of Deputies and presidential sanction/veto considerations to become law.
- 2026 Outlook: Current consular guidance states that throughout 2026, "You cannot just show up with a USA passport anymore when travel to Brazil."
- This market tracks if that policy holds or is overturned.
