U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin AmericaUS Politics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 6%
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$20.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
20.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.5%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jan 31, 26, 12:24 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Volume trend
$2Jul 320d of dataJul 22
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
- A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified.
- Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.