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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

0.5% (24h)One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 8%+0.0%
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$713

Liquidity

$27.5K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

7.0% / 8.0%

Spread

14.3%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Jan 31, 26, 12:25 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes8%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
  • A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified.
  • Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
  • A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified.
  • Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.