U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin AmericaUS Politics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$24.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.9% / 3.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 31, 26, 12:24 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
- A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified.
- Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
