PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 92.1%
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.6K
Liquidity
$17.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 8:40 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026
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PolymarketWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiUS and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
- Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement.
- A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement.
- A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify.
Open markets
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- No+13.0pt81.2%
- Yes-13.0pt18.8%
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+1 more outcomes
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- 25 bps decrease2.9%
+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 92% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? resolve?
- US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.