PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 96%
No 96%Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$100
Liquidity
$37.1K
High liquidityOpen interest
$4.9K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
0
7d Change
-0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 8:40 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026
Manifold MarketsUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?
Manifold MarketsUS and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHot war between the US and China by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
- Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement.
- A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement.
- A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify.
