The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026?

Manifold Markets prices No at 80.9% as of November 1, 2026.

When does The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 resolve?

The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 15, 2027.

How is The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

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POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX-1.0pt56.4%
• Anthropic+1.9pt43.6%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$7.2M

24h Vol

$127.4K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini-2.6pt50.5%
• Claude+0.3pt38.7%
• ChatGPT-0.4pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google-2.5pt54.5%
• Anthropic+2.0pt37.4%
• OpenAI-0.1pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

KALSHI

Google market share this week

• Above 20.2%+6.0pt3.5%
• Above 17.3%+1.0pt1.5%
• Above 19.1%1%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-4.0pt28.6%
• $2.0–$2.25T+1.9pt20%
• $1.5–$1.75T+1.1pt17.1%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 26–Nov 1

• Above 187T tokens+2.0pt99%
• Above 186T tokens+1.0pt99.5%
• Above 183T tokens97%

• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Anthropic IPO Date
• Best AI this week
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
• Anthropic market share this week
• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 1, 2026
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?