Current community forecast
No 80.5%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 7:49 AM UTCJan 15, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketDid Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRules
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $73.6K
- 24h Vol
- $73.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.3pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.2pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.4pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.6K
- 24h Vol
- $31.6K
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 resolve?
- The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 15, 2027.
- How is The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026