PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 83.2%+1.5pt
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$33.1
Liquidity
$2.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
16.0% / 17.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
17
7d Change
+9.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 25, 3:01 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETNext Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- October 31+2.3pt99%
- September 30+3.5pt95%
- September 15+0.5pt89%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.2pt68%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.6%
- Grok+0.4pt9.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.6M
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+21.5pt77%
- Moonshot-15.2pt13%
- Z.ai-7.0pt6%
+8 more outcomes
GEMINIBTC price on September 1
- $77,000 or above87.5%
- $77,250 or above74%
- $77,500 or above55%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.8K
- 24h Vol
- $36.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,95%
- October 31,-0.5pt90%
- October 15,-2.0pt68%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNext Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by which date?
- October 31+3.9pt99%
- September 30+11.7pt96%
- September 15+8.9pt86%
+7 more outcomes
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released on?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+): Text Arena Debut?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 83% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? resolve?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET.