Current community forecast
No 60.3%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 30, 26, 4:49 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk posts on X (formerly Twitter) a tweet explicitly stating that a Grok successor model has achieved "AGI-level performance," "AGI has been reached," or substantially equivalent language claiming AGI achievement by December 31, 2026.
- The tweet must be posted by @elonmusk's verified account and must specifically reference a Grok model version (e.g., Grok 5, Grok 6, etc.).
- Resolution is based on the literal text of the tweet; claims about "approaching AGI" or "near-AGI capabilities" do not qualify.
- The market resolves NO if no such tweet is posted by the deadline.
- Elon Musk predicts that his company xAI could achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next couple of years, and maybe as soon as 2026.
