KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 5.6% (99%)
Resolved: Nov 2, 2026, 4:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 5.6%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
99%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 2, 2026, 4:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 5.5%98%
Above 5.8%1%
Above 5.6%99%
Above 6.1%4%
Above 5.6%Won
Above 5.5%Lost
Above 4.5%Lost
Above 4.9%Lost
Above 5.4%Lost
Above 5.2%Lost
Above 5.8%Lost
Above 6.1%Lost
Above 6.5%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If Anthropic scores above 5.6% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 26, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 5.6%
- If Anthropic scores above 5.6% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.5%
- If Anthropic scores above 5.5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.5%
- If Anthropic scores above 4.5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.9%
- If Anthropic scores above 4.9% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.4%
- If Anthropic scores above 5.4% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.2%
- If Anthropic scores above 5.2% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5.8%
- If Anthropic scores above 5.8% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6.1%
- If Anthropic scores above 6.1% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6.5%
- If Anthropic scores above 6.5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.