Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Dec 21, 25, 9:17 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Sources from VoteHub, U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Resolves the same as Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpbullcasecombo/trumps-year-bull-dream-case/kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec