Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
EconomyOne-OffMacro & EconomyPoliticsUS Politics3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.7%
Forecasters
354
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 25, 3:40 PM UTCJan 21, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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ForecastExRules
Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term.
- A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
- This will be at any time during Trump's term, so if the two quarter or 6 months occurs at any time up to January 20, 2029.
- Estimates and NBER declarations can lag up to a year, so if it doesn't occur beforehand and there is any possibility or debate of it occurring at the end of the term, will allow for up to a year after inauguration for declaration.
- If any estimates are revised, the initial ones are what will count (so we don't have to adjust payouts).
- Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that BEA data will be considered the "official" source for GDP estimates.
