Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:16 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 63.8%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 21, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWIll the United States Economy enter a recession by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRules
Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term.
- A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
- This will be at any time during Trump's term, so if the two quarter or 6 months occurs at any time up to January 20, 2029.
- Estimates and NBER declarations can lag up to a year, so if it doesn't occur beforehand and there is any possibility or debate of it occurring at the end of the term, will allow for up to a year after inauguration for declaration.
- If any estimates are revised, the initial ones are what will count (so we don't have to adjust payouts).
- Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that BEA data will be considered the "official" source for GDP estimates.
