Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58.8%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 21, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExRules
Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term.
- A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
- This will be at any time during Trump's term, so if the two quarter or 6 months occurs at any time up to January 20, 2029.
- Estimates and NBER declarations can lag up to a year, so if it doesn't occur beforehand and there is any possibility or debate of it occurring at the end of the term, will allow for up to a year after inauguration for declaration.
- If any estimates are revised, the initial ones are what will count (so we don't have to adjust payouts).
- Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that BEA data will be considered the "official" source for GDP estimates.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417K
- 24h Vol
- $41.5K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $638K
- 24h Vol
- $34K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $360.8K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term? resolve?
- Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2030.
- How is Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term.