Will two Democratic and two GOP Senators cosponsor an AI bill that mentions widespread job loss from AI before 2030?
EconomyAIOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsMiddle East3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 60.1%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 4:16 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2030, a bill is introduced in the United States Senate that meets all of the following conditions:
- It is formally cosponsored by at least two Democratic Senators and at least two Republican Senators.
- The text of the bill explicitly mentions "widespread job loss" (or a grammatically equivalent phrase clearly referring to the phenomenon of broad-based unemployment) resulting from artificial intelligence.
- The market will resolve to NO if no such bill is introduced and cosponsored by January 1, 2030.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.2M
- 24h Vol
- $6.3M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $772.5K
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $449.8K
- 24h Vol
- $31.7K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.1K
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt49.5%
- Overheating+13.7pt45.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $94.6K
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will two Democratic and two GOP Senators cosponsor an AI bill that mentions widespread job loss from AI before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 60% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will two Democratic and two GOP Senators cosponsor an AI bill that mentions widespread job loss from AI before 2030? resolve?
- Will two Democratic and two GOP Senators cosponsor an AI bill that mentions widespread job loss from AI before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will two Democratic and two GOP Senators cosponsor an AI bill that mentions widespread job loss from AI before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This description was generated by AI.