Current community forecast
Yes 61.1%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleNov 11, 23, 7:37 AM UTCNov 18, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Andrew Tate be sentenced to several years in a British prison?
Manifold Markets8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsWhich UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiRules
"Things will basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years and those worries are overstated ", from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements
- No strict criteria.
- Resolves to my or a resolution council's judgment if there's any disagreement, resolution should agree with the consensus if there is one.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years? resolve?
- Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years? is scheduled to resolve on November 18, 2028.
- How is Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "Things will basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years and those worries are overstated ", from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements