Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
EconomyOne-OffAIMacro & Economy8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.5%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 28, 26, 12:26 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X
- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the "fast-growth" (Explosive AI-driven growth) side of the bet wins.
- It will resolve to NO if the "no-fast-growth" side (which Benjamin Moll is betting on) wins.
- According to the official bet terms, the fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q , up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q-4 (i.e., at least one year before Q).
- Otherwise, the no-fast-growth side wins.
Open markets
EconomyKALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $3.6M
- 24h Vol
- $17.7K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $870K
- 24h Vol
- $16.3K
POLYMARKETUS recession by end of 2026?
- No+1.0pt93%
- Yes-1.0pt7%
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $16.3K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above -0.4%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $230.4K
- 24h Vol
- $15.3K
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%98%
- Above 3.1%-1.0pt97%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $368.5K
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%99%
- Above 2.2%98%
- Above 2.3%86%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $60K
- 24h Vol
- $13.9K
- Pennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI in October
- September Unemployment Rate
- Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
- China Annual GDP Growth 2026
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- 2026 World GDP Growth
- How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
- Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? resolve?
- Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X