Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?
EconomyOne-OffAIHealth & Medicine
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastUniversal Basic Income 71.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 8, 25, 3:07 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 6:17 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
not sure what the exact cutoff for Mass Unemployment is (10%, 20%, 50%) and for how long that rate needs to last
- but I think maybe 20% for a year seems reasonable (assuming it’s due to AI automation rather than other factors e.g. pandemics, wars, etc.) the spirit of the market is when it’s normalized to not be employed long term.
- for UBI to count, it needs to be on the order of $1000 a month (i.e. enough to cover living expenses) so comparable to Social Security
- UBC has to be through the government (not the current equivalent of ChatGPT free tier) unless a corporation achieves an absurd amount of profit (e.g 1% of world gdp ~1T) and has a windfall or similar agreement to share their wealth with all citizens.
- Currently don’t like how long the description is so I’m open to suggestions to simplify the the criteria but the main goal is to see which of UBI or UBC is more likely to actually happen given that they seem unlikely right now.
- Should resolve to one of the 2 unless
