By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Economy AIOne-Off1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 65.6%

Forecasters

636

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Feb 20, 23, 10:31 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Macro-Sensitive Assets

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EthereumETH$2,484.36-0.22%

SolanaSOL$103.32-0.59%

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By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?

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Futuur

Rules

Related to ACX five year predictions.

I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.

Report a data issue with this market

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Economy AIOne-Off1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 65.6%

Forecasters

636

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Feb 20, 23, 10:31 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$78,549.81-0.79%

EthereumETH$2,484.36-0.22%

SolanaSOL$103.32-0.59%

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?

Manifold Markets

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?

Manifold Markets

Will US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050?

Manifold Markets

U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter?

Kalshi

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Polymarket

US GDP growth in Q3 2026

Futuur

Rules

Related to ACX five year predictions.

I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI??: Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
When does By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI? resolve?: By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
How is By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Related to ACX five year predictions.

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Frequently asked questions

Open markets

Fed Decision in September?

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

CPI in August

US government budget balance in 2026

Recession in 2027?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

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Frequently asked questions

Open markets

Fed Decision in September?

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

CPI in August

US government budget balance in 2026

Recession in 2027?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?