Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 54 minutes ago
LaggingMar 7, 26, 5:21 PM UTCDec 31, 49, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
As of 2025, US nominal GDP per capita is ~$89,600 vs. ~$58,000 for Western Europe, a ratio of roughly 1.55x.
- This question resolves YES if that ratio exceeds 10.0 at anytime before 2050.
- Western Europe defined as: Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg (UN Geoscheme) GDP per capita in nominal USD
