Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 26, 5:21 PM UTCDec 31, 49, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsIf Labour wins the 2024 UK general election, what will average GDP/capita (PPP) growth over the next four years be?
Manifold MarketsUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketUS GDP growth in Q3 2026
FutuurWhich of these countries will have a higher GDP per capita than Mexico by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
As of 2025, US nominal GDP per capita is ~$89,600 vs. ~$58,000 for Western Europe, a ratio of roughly 1.55x.
- This question resolves YES if that ratio exceeds 10.0 at anytime before 2050.
- Western Europe defined as: Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg (UN Geoscheme) GDP per capita in nominal USD
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050? resolve?
- Will US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2049.
- How is Will US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As of 2025, US nominal GDP per capita is ~$89,600 vs. ~$58,000 for Western Europe, a ratio of roughly 1.55x.