KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 51%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
48.0% / 51.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Mar 11, 26, 7:00 PM UTCMar 4, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decline in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRules
If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Only the first non-preliminary release for each quarter will be considered.
- Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 51% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter? resolve?
- U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter? is scheduled to resolve on March 4, 2027.
- How is U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.