Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57.6% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet? resolve?

Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet? is scheduled to resolve on August 1, 2030.

How is Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves YES if the Long Bet between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J. Gordon is won by Brynjolfsson on LongBets.org.

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KALSHI

Recession this year?

• No97.5%
• Yes-3.0pt2.5%

Total Vol

$3.8M

24h Vol

$41.7K

KALSHI

Core CPI YoY in November

• Above 2.0%98.5%
• Above 2.2%98.5%
• Above 2.3%98.5%

KALSHI

Unemployment in November

• Above 3.7%+2.0pt96%
• Above 3.8%-8.0pt92%
• Above 3.9%-5.0pt82.5%

KALSHI

Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?

• No64%
• Yes+3.0pt36%

Total Vol

$35.6K

24h Vol

$9.7K

KALSHI

CPI in November

• Above -0.1%+5.0pt92.5%
• Above 0.0%+1.0pt81.5%
• Above 0.1%+1.0pt70%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in December

• Above 3.0%96.5%
• Above 3.1%95.5%
• Above 3.3%94.5%

• Recession in 2027?
• October Unemployment Rate
• CPI in October
• US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
• CPI in December
• CPI YoY in November
• Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
• Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)
• US recession by end of 2026?
• Core CPI in November