By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
One-OffAIMacro & Economy1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.6%
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3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:26 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Related to ACX five year predictions.
- I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
- By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
- Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.
- Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI? resolve?
- By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Related to ACX five year predictions.