By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
One-OffAIMacro & Economy1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.6%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:26 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketConditional on a cyber incident causing $15B+ in US economic damage, what will be the primary target?
Manifold MarketsWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurWill weakly general AI double US total factor productivity growth within ten years?
Manifold MarketsRules
Related to ACX five year predictions.
- I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
- By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
- Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.
- Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions.
