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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. What will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold Markets

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

EconomyGeopoliticsOne-OffSpaceCorporate ActionsChessSportsTechAI6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year. 72.8%
Leader of 95 outcomes
Forecasters

246

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 46 minutes ago

Lagging
Dec 19, 25, 5:48 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.73%

Rules

Please add questions for what will happen in 2026 related to AI! I've added some clarifications below.

Manifold Markets
  • If there is ambiguity I will resolve to my best judgement.
  • Clarifications
  • "SSI will release a product": It should be generally available in 2026; i.e. no waitlist.
  • Should be an AI product; I’m not counting hats, clothing, etc.
  • "X will outperform the S&P": As measured at the end of the year.

Related Markets

Manifold Markets

Combined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX

$190.7
Under $3T: 1.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

OpenAI highest valuation by end of June 2026

$169.5
≥$0.6T: 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

$8.7
SpaceX: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony?

SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony?

$57.4K
Elon Musk: 98%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

$14.9K
December 31: 37%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion, on June 12th, the IPO date of Spacex?

$7.1K
Yes: 79%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,635.39+1.82%SolanaSOL$65.06+0.76%EthereumETH$1,652.17+1.34%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.11%BNBBNB$595.08+1.24%XRPXRP$1.12-0.38%

Related News

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsAnthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraph

Rules

Please add questions for what will happen in 2026 related to AI! I've added some clarifications below.

Manifold Markets
  • If there is ambiguity I will resolve to my best judgement.
  • Clarifications
  • "SSI will release a product": It should be generally available in 2026; i.e. no waitlist.
  • Should be an AI product; I’m not counting hats, clothing, etc.
  • "X will outperform the S&P": As measured at the end of the year.