What will happen in 2026 related to AI?
EconomyGeopoliticsOne-OffSpaceCorporate ActionsChessSportsTechAI5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastSam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year. 95.4%Leader of 95 outcomes
Forecasters
263
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Dec 19, 25, 5:48 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.95%
Volume trend
$46Jul 813d of dataJul 26
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What will happen to OpenAI by 1st January 2029
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POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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MANIFOLD MARKETSCombined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX
$50.5Under $3T: 1.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
$0SpaceX: 97%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
$6.3KBefore May 1, 2027: 43%
KALSHI
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Please add questions for what will happen in 2026 related to AI! I've added some clarifications below.
- If there is ambiguity I will resolve to my best judgement.
- Clarifications
- "SSI will release a product": It should be generally available in 2026; i.e. no waitlist.
- Should be an AI product; I’m not counting hats, clothing, etc.
- "X will outperform the S&P": As measured at the end of the year.