What will happen in 2026 related to AI?
EconomyGeopoliticsOne-OffSpaceCorporate ActionsChessSportsTechAI3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThe METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours. 100%Leader of 96 outcomes
Forecasters
294
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+7.1 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 19, 25, 5:48 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Please add questions for what will happen in 2026 related to AI! I've added some clarifications below.
- If there is ambiguity I will resolve to my best judgement.
- Clarifications
- "the named outcome": It should be generally available in 2026; i.e. no waitlist.
- Should be an AI product; I’m not counting hats, clothing, etc. "X will outperform the S&P": As measured at the end of the year.
