What will happen to OpenAI by 1st January 2029
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 12:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastIt IPOs at an IPO Price that gives a $1trillion or higher valuation 81.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 13, 26, 6:13 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This independent multiple-choice market will have each option resolve individually based on events occurring prior to January 1, 2029.
- "It IPOs at an IPO Price that gives a $1trillion valuation"
- Resolves YES if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on a major public exchange before January 1, 2029, and its market capitalization calculated at the final IPO offering price (offering price multiplied by total outstanding shares post-offering) is $1,000,000,000,000 ($1 trillion) or greater.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- "the named outcome"
