Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 1, 22, 3:22 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2029.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month
- Close date updated to 2029-01-01 11:59 pm