Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Oct 1, 22, 3:22 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2029.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month
- Close date updated to 2029-01-01 11:59 pm
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
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- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
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+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
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- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
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- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
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- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029 resolve?
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2029.
- How is This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2029.