Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 1, 22, 6:06 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month
Open markets
SoccerPOLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.5M
- 24h Vol
- $3.1M
KALSHIArizona vs Kansas City
- Kansas City+1.0pt50%
- Arizona-1.0pt50%
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $1M
KALSHIIndepend. Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama
- Tie+69.0pt98%
- Independ. Santa Fe-43.0pt1%
- Vasco da Gama-25.0pt1%
- Total Vol
KALSHIFluminense vs Platense
- Fluminense+37.0pt98%
- Platense-11.0pt1%
- Tie-23.0pt1%
- Total Vol
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Total Vol
- $598.5K
- 24h Vol
- $577.6K
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-0.9pt61.8%
- Lamine Yamal-0.3pt13.7%
- Kylian Mbappé+1.9pt11.8%
+28 more outcomes
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
- Fluminense vs Platense: Total Goals
- Independ. Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama: Total Goals
- Arizona vs Kansas City: Home Runs
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- Napoli vs Arsenal
- Sporting CP vs. Galatasaray SK
- Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
- FC Barcelona vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam
- Champions League Winner
- Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo
- PSG vs Slovan Bratislava
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 resolve?
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.