If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

PoliticsOne-OffEurope Election1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 97.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 14 hours ago

Stale

Jun 4, 24, 4:21 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

N/A if Labour do not win at least half the seats in the 2024 GE.

Subject to no N/A, it’s “yes” if Starmer is PM on 1st January 2028 and “no” otherwise.

Report a data issue with this market

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

PoliticsOne-OffEurope Election1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 97.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 14 hours ago

Stale

Jun 4, 24, 4:21 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Will Trump say he “forgives” the UK Labour Party, Keir Starmer or in any reference to them?

Manifold Markets

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will UK aid be at or above the 0.6% of GNI by the end of the Parliament?

Manifold Markets

2x2: Will Labour get majority, will fossil fuels (without imports) compose >33% of UK energy gen next Parliament?

Manifold Markets

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

Kalshi

Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?

Kalshi

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Polymarket

Rules

N/A if Labour do not win at least half the seats in the 2024 GE.

Subject to no N/A, it’s “yes” if Starmer is PM on 1st January 2028 and “no” otherwise.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028??: Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
When does If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028? resolve?: If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
How is If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: N/A if Labour do not win at least half the seats in the 2024 GE.

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

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