Current implied probability
Harry Kane 44%+2.7%Leader of 89 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$752.1K
Liquidity
$12.7M
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.5% / 10.6%
Spread
0.9%
Tight spread7d Change
+2.8%
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 22, 25, 11:39 PMOct 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Harry Kane44%
Compare venues· Harry Kane
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 44% | 0pt | $752.1K | $12.7M | 7 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi85% match · linked | Medium | 48% | +4pt | $167.7K | $3.5M | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless94% match · auto | Low | 43% | -1pt | $0 | $0 | 27 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad76% match · linked | Low | 60% | +16pt | $0 | $0 | 27 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 47% | +3pt | — | — | 27 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets85% match · linked | — | 43% | -1pt | — | — | 2 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · verified | — | 43% | -1pt | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
| Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 44% | +0pt | — | — | 3 hours ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
3mo
50%
42.5%
25.5%
+7 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$827.3
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Kalshi
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
2.0%5mo
+3.0%48%
-2.0%23%
+2.0%14%
+28 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.6M
24h Vol$167.7K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
5mo
+3.1%44.2%
-1.1%24%
-0.6%15%
+12 more outcomes
Community forecast57 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
4mo
+5.5%46.5%
-2.6%23.6%
-3.7%11%
+16 more outcomes
Community forecast179 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
5mo
-4.4%43%
-4.7%27.3%
15.8%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast40 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the men's 2025/2026 Ballon d’Or?
3mo
+0.7%43.1%
-2.1%25.3%
+1.5%15.8%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast30 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Myriad
Who wins the Ballon d’Or 2026?
72.5%3mo
+0.7%60.1%
-0.1%12.6%
-0.5%12.5%
+6 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADRules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
- If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.5k15.0%KALSHIKylian Mbappe — Yes27m ago
KALSHIKylian Mbappe — Yes27m ago$2.0k15.0%KALSHIKylian Mbappe — Yes27m ago
KALSHIKylian Mbappe — Yes27m ago$1.8k91.0%KALSHIRodri — No12h ago
KALSHIRodri — No12h ago$3.0k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Noaflemingyesterday
POLYMARKETWill Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Noaflemingyesterday$1.0k88.5%POLYMARKETWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — NoDistructionyesterday
POLYMARKETWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — NoDistructionyesterday$2.8k46.0%KALSHIHarry Kane — Yesyesterday
KALSHIHarry Kane — Yesyesterday$2.3k45.0%KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes2d ago
KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes2d ago$3.4k85.0%KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d ago
KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d agoVolume trend
$752.1kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
- If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).