Current implied probability
Harry Kane 27%Leader of 31 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$128.8
Liquidity
$7.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
27.0% / 29.0%
Spread
7.4%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jan 24, 26, 1:00 AMDec 31, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Harry Kane27%
Also available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
6mo
17.8%
1.2%
1.2%
+11 more outcomes
Community forecast28 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$9.4K
24h Vol$80.6
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
6mo
19%
2%
2%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast35 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$3.1K
24h Vol$167.3
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
5mo
+14.2%31%
+0.3%1%
0.2%
+15 more outcomes
Community forecast72 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$108.8K
24h Vol$3.1K
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Limitless
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
4mo
23%
1.7%
13.3%
+5 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$390.9
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESS
Also available on Polymarket
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
2.9%4mo
+1.0%26%
+2.9%23%
-1.1%13%
+86 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4.9M
24h Vol$81.4K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the men's 2025/2026 Ballon d’Or?
4mo
-1.2%6.5%
-5.0%23%
-1.5%6.5%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast22 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$7.8K
24h Vol$442.8
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If Kylian Mbappe wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Lamine Yamal wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Erling Haaland wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Declan Rice wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Vitinha wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If Kylian Mbappe wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Lamine Yamal wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Erling Haaland wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Declan Rice wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Vitinha wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.