Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99.3%
Forecasters
99
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Apr 8, 22, 4:05 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2027.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
Open markets
Tech
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- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
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- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027 resolve?
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2027.