Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 16, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 84.6%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleJun 27, 26, 3:55 PMDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes85%
Volume trend
$50Jul 143d of dataJul 16
Related Markets
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$11.7K$1.25–$1.5T: 17%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
$4.5KBefore Oct 1, 2026: 22%
KALSHI
KALSHI
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
$4.1KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 2%KALSHI
KALSHIWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by July 31?
$4K↑$1.15T: 26%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
OpenAI IPO by which date?
$3.9KDecember: 19%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
$1.3KChina invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter
Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph
DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News
DeepMind CEO Says AGI Will Be Bigger Than Electricity or FireDecrypt
NVIDIA Nemotron AI Challenge Offers Lessons on Improving Model ReasoningBlockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.