Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?
RegulationOne-OffAITechChessEquitiesCorporate ActionsSportsBusiness & Corporate2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 94%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 27, 26, 3:55 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Anthropic completes a public stock listing before OpenAI.
- This market resolves to NO if OpenAI completes a public stock listing before Anthropic.
- Resolution Rules:
- Definition of Public Listing: A company is deemed to have completed its public listing when its common stock begins trading on a major regulated stock exchange (such as the NYSE or NASDAQ) via a traditional initial public offering (IPO), direct listing, or SPAC merger.
- Timing: The relative order will be determined by the calendar date (and, if necessary, the precise timestamp of the first public trade) on which each company’s shares begin trading.