Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastDecember 31 11.59pm ET 71%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Jun 2, 26, 8:38 PMDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
July 31 11.59pm ET1%
Compare venues· December 31 11.59pm ET
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall85% match · auto | Medium | 71% | — | $9.9K | $213.8K | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 71% | — | — | — | 25 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Anthropic IPO by __?
10.5 pts11mo
-1.0pt59.2%
-10.5pt34.2%
5.8%
+3 more outcomes
69 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$802.9K
24h Vol$9.9K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolves yes if Anthropic has IPO’d and has shares listed on a public stock exchange available for purchase by the date listed.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$10.7k91.0%POLYMARKETWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? — NoParz1vaI16d ago
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? — NoParz1vaI16d agoVolume trend
$77Jul 816d of dataJul 27
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Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by July 31?
$5.9K↓$1.05T: 17%POLYMARKET
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Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
$4.5KAnthropic: 91%POLYMARKET
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When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
$3.2KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 5%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
$2KOpenAI: 28%KALSHI
KALSHI
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
$2KBefore Dec 1, 2026: 15%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolves yes if Anthropic has IPO’d and has shares listed on a public stock exchange available for purchase by the date listed.