1 month after Anthropic IPO, will their market cap be higher than launch day?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 1:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 50.2%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 31, 26, 4:41 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Anthropic's market capitalization 30 calendar days after its first day of public trading is higher than its launch market capitalization (after the first day).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market:
- Launch market capitalization is defined as the valuation calculated using the method below, after the first trading day has closed.
- For example, the SpaceX IPO was at 1.77 trillion USD, but they had reached a valuation of 2.1 trillion USD after the first trading day.