Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo convergence on a term by EOY 2027 40.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 1, 25, 4:59 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 5:53 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Just as "vibecoding" and "slop" quickly became the established terms for the novel AI-driven phenomena they were describing, one might expect convergence on a popular term for the possibility of mass job loss precipitated by modern AI.
- A qualifying term must be mainly used to refer to AI job loss in general, or the abstract idea of a set of AI-induced layoff, rather than a specific set of layoffs or job loss in a particular economic sector (more specific than "white-collar workers").
- I'll resolve if it seems like popular culture has mostly converged on a single term.
- This will necessarily be a vibes-y resolution.
- To decide when to resolve, I'll draw from sources including popular X posts, Reddit, and news articles (a la this one about vibecoding in the NYT).
- I'll also give time for commenters to discuss the extent to which a term has solidified, and the extent to which there are extant rival terms, before resolving.
