Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?
EconomyAIOne-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElection1y
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 86.4%
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28
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 10 hours ago
StaleDec 30, 23, 8:25 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
“American presidential candidate” - I’ll define this as the set of candidates for the 2028 presidential election who participate in at least one primary debate for either mainstream party, as well as candidates (from any party) who at some point after January 1, 2028 are polling at above 3% in at least two reputable general election polls.
- “A platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI” - Issues related to AI do not need to be the primary focal point of the candidate platform, but the candidate must regularly reference in their public appearances a stance on AI that directly and explicitly supports a significant form of nationalization or a state-enforced pause of either development or deployment.
- Here are some roughly outlined stances which would/would not count:
- Would count towards a YES resolution:
- “AGI development cannot continue to be done by private companies who are not directly accountable to the American people”
- “There must be a Manhattan Project for AI”
