Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.8%
Forecasters
54
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Mar 30, 25, 6:53 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US experience a recession during 2027?
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Manifold MarketsIf the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 2.2% in December 2026, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.