Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 83.9%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 24, 12:18 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US experience a recession during 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Trump economic boom?
Kalshi[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
FutuurFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRules
This question resolves as yes if, for any 12-month period before 2030, the change in the US CPI-U (as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) is negative, and the real GDP growth (as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis) is greater than 5%.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030? resolve?
- Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves as yes if, for any 12-month period before 2030, the change in the US CPI-U (as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) is negative, and the real GDP growth (as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis) is greater than 5%.