KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 74%
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$116
Liquidity
$30.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
23.1% / 25.9%
Spread
2.8 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Dec 18, 24, 3:00 PM UTCJan 26, 29, 1:25 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many assassination attempts will there be on Trump during his presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next big economic crash occur?
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRules
If any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 has GDP growth of above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- **Important information:** An 'economic boom' is defined as any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 having GDP growth of above 5%.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.3K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $418.1K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.1K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-4.0pt93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-10.0pt84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $366.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a Trump economic boom??
- Kalshi prices No at 74% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will there be a Trump economic boom? resolve?
- Will there be a Trump economic boom? is scheduled to resolve on January 26, 2029.
- How is Will there be a Trump economic boom? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 has GDP growth of above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.