Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 26, 3:06 AM UTCNov 6, 26, 1:25 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
China unemployment rate in August
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExSouth Africa unemployment rate in Q3
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.6% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExUnemployment rate in Nov 2026?
KalshiSeptember Unemployment Rate
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
- A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES.
- A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO.
- Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial October 2026 release before resolution.
- If the October 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the October 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by November 13, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026 reported U-3 unemployment at 4.2 percent, total nonfarm payroll employment up 57,000, and labor-force participation at 61.5 percent.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["October 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, demographic, forecast, and revision markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the October reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the October 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-11-06 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Unemployment rate in Oct 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 20%
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.2M
- 24h Vol
- $6.3M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $772.5K
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $449.8K
- 24h Vol
- $31.7K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.1K
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt49.5%
- Overheating+13.7pt45.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $94.6K
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the October 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the October 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? resolve?
- Will the October 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? is scheduled to resolve on November 6, 2026.
- How is Will the October 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Where else is Will the October 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.