Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.4%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 3, 26, 3:06 AM UTCNov 6, 26, 1:25 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
October Unemployment Rate
PolymarketChina unemployment rate in October
KalshiUnemployment rate in Nov 2026?
KalshiGermany unemployment rate in October
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExUK unemployment rate in Q4 2026 per ONS
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
- A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES.
- A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO.
- Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial October 2026 release before resolution.
- If the October 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the October 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by November 13, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026 reported U-3 unemployment at 4.2 percent, total nonfarm payroll employment up 57,000, and labor-force participation at 61.5 percent.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["October 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, demographic, forecast, and revision markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the October reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the October 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-11-06 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — October Unemployment Rate · 4.2% 38%
- Also available on Kalshi — Unemployment rate in Oct 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 40%