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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. China
  3. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

0.1% (24h)One-OffChina3mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 3%
Market quality

80 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$2.4K

Liquidity

$71.7K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.9% / 3.1%

Spread

6.9%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Mar 17, 26, 11:28 PMSep 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes3%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
  • The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
  • The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.