PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 99%+0.7pt
Market quality
85 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$21.8K
Liquidity
$121.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.8% / 1.0%
Spread
0.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Mar 17, 26, 11:27 PMSep 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 99% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? resolve?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
